Chris Sutton
Public forecaster · BBC · As of 2026-08-31
Latest resolution
“Japan finishes first in its group at the 2026 FIFA World Cup [Group F].”
FalseBrier Index
62.0 → 62.0 (+0.1)
Overall rank
15 → 15
Topic overview
Grouped categories with Brier Index (0–100, higher is better) and resolved count. Sample sizes remain modest.
Resolved predictions
“Brazil finishes first in its group at the 2026 FIFA World Cup [Group C].”
True“Germany finishes first in its group at the 2026 FIFA World Cup [Group E].”
True“Senegal finishes first in its group at the 2026 FIFA World Cup [Group I].”
False“Argentina finishes first in its group at the 2026 FIFA World Cup [Group J].”
True“England finishes first in its group at the 2026 FIFA World Cup [Group L].”
True“Spain finishes first in its group at the 2026 FIFA World Cup [Group H].”
True“Colombia finishes first in its group at the 2026 FIFA World Cup [Group K].”
True“Turkey finishes first in its group at the 2026 FIFA World Cup [Group D].”
False“South Korea finishes first in its group at the 2026 FIFA World Cup [Group A].”
False“Switzerland finishes first in its group at the 2026 FIFA World Cup [Group B].”
True“Belgium finishes first in its group at the 2026 FIFA World Cup [Group G].”
True“Paraguay finishes second in its group at the 2026 FIFA World Cup [Group D].”
False“Canada finishes second in its group at the 2026 FIFA World Cup [Group B].”
True“Mexico will beat South Africa 1-0 in their opening World Cup 2026 Group A match [Mexico City, 11 June 2026].”
False“South Korea will draw with Czechia 1-1 in their World Cup 2026 Group A match [Guadalajara, 11 June 2026].”
False“Canada will draw with Bosnia and Herzegovina 1-1 in their World Cup 2026 Group B match [Toronto, 12 June 2026].”
True“USA will draw with Paraguay 1-1 in their World Cup 2026 Group D match [Los Angeles, 12 June 2026].”
False“Qatar will lose to Switzerland 0-2 in their World Cup 2026 Group B match [San Francisco, 13 June 2026].”
False“Brazil will beat Morocco 2-1 in their World Cup 2026 Group C match [New York, 13 June 2026].”
False“Haiti will lose to Scotland 1-2 in their World Cup 2026 Group C match [Boston, 14 June 2026].”
False“Australia will draw with Turkey 2-2 in their World Cup 2026 Group D match [Vancouver, 14 June 2026].”
False“Germany will beat Curacao 3-0 in their World Cup 2026 Group E match [Houston, 14 June 2026].”
False“Ivory Coast will draw with Ecuador 0-0 in their World Cup 2026 Group E match [Philadelphia, 15 June 2026].”
False“Netherlands will lose to Japan 1-2 in their World Cup 2026 Group F match [Dallas, 14 June 2026].”
False“Sweden will draw with Tunisia 1-1 in their World Cup 2026 Group F match [Monterrey, 15 June 2026].”
False“England will beat Croatia 2-0 in their World Cup 2026 Group L match [Dallas, 17 June 2026].”
False“Ghana will beat Panama 2-1 in their World Cup 2026 Group L match [Toronto, 18 June 2026].”
False“Portugal will beat DR Congo 2-1 in their World Cup 2026 Group K match [Houston, 17 June 2026].”
False“France wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup”
False“Morocco beats Canada 2-0 in the last-16 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup”
False“France beats Paraguay 5-0 in the last-16 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup”
False“Norway beats Brazil on penalties in the last-16 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup”
False“England beats Mexico 2-1 in the last-16 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup”
False“Spain beats Portugal 3-1 in the last-16 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup”
FalseShowing first 8 of 34 predictions. Scroll for the rest, or use the score composition table below.
Ordered by resolution date (most recent first), then publication date. No editorial ranking applied. Sample sizes remain modest; treat scores as provisional.
Score composition
Individual Brier contribution of every resolved prediction in the overall mean (as of 20260831T180355Z · brier-1.0.0). Lower is better. Overall score is the pure mean of these values.
Scores are mean Brier scores (lower is better). Only resolved predictions are included. Sample sizes remain modest for many topics; treat rankings as provisional.