“Turkey finishes first in its group at the 2026 FIFA World Cup [Group D].”
Turkey finished fourth in Group D with 3 points (behind United States, Australia and Paraguay), per official FIFA group standings.
Brier Index
62.0 → 62.0 (-0.0)
Raw Brier
0.144 → 0.144
Overall rank
15 → 15
Specific group-stage prediction by Chris Sutton in BBC Sport article published 2026-06-10. Premier English outlet with detailed, falsifiable forecasts.
Turkey finishes in first place in its assigned group at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, as determined by the official FIFA group standings.
This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.
| Published | 10 June 2026 |
| Logged | 11 June 2026 |
| Resolved | 5 July 2026 |
| Stated probability | 38% |
| Brier contribution | 0.144 |
| Brier Index (this prediction) | 62.0 |
| Prediction id | pred-2026-06-10-sutton-turkey-group |
| Topic |
Turkey Performance Group Stage
|