False

“Morocco beats Canada 2-0 in the last-16 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup”

Original source

Morocco beat Canada 3-0 in the Round of 16 (official scoreline was not 2-0).

Primary evidence source

Impact on track record
FALSE

Brier Index

61.8 → 62.0 (+0.2)

Raw Brier

0.146 → 0.144

Overall rank

15 → 15

Statement context

Public prediction by Sutton, Chris published in BBC Sport. Clear, testable claim about the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Probability accountability

The claim is a clear directional statement. No numerical odds were given by the forecaster. A probability of 0.30 reflects moderate confidence consistent with similar qualitative predictions in the dataset.

Resolution criteria

The official FIFA match result for Canada vs Morocco in the Round of 16 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup is Morocco winning 2-0 (or the scoreline matching the predicted result).

Verification

This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.

Claim details
Published 4 July 2026
Logged 4 August 2026
Resolved
Stated probability 30%
Brier contribution 0.090
Brier Index (this prediction) 70.0
Prediction id pred-2026-08-04-sutton-morocco-beats-canada-2-0-in-the
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