“Norway beats Brazil on penalties in the last-16 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup”
Norway beat Brazil 2-1 in regular time in the Round of 16; the match was not decided on penalties.
Brier Index
61.7 → 62.0 (+0.3)
Raw Brier
0.146 → 0.144
Overall rank
15 → 15
Public prediction by Sutton, Chris published in BBC Sport. Clear, testable claim about the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
The claim is a clear directional statement with an upset angle. No numerical odds were given. A probability of 0.25 reflects lower confidence appropriate for an underdog penalty scenario.
The official FIFA match result for Brazil vs Norway in the Round of 16 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup is Norway advancing after a penalty shootout.
This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.
| Published | 4 July 2026 |
| Logged | 4 August 2026 |
| Resolved | — |
| Stated probability | 25% |
| Brier contribution | 0.062 |
| Brier Index (this prediction) | 75.0 |
| Prediction id | pred-2026-08-04-sutton-norway-beats-brazil-on-penalties |
| Archived source | View archive link |