Chris Sutton
False

“Japan finishes first in its group at the 2026 FIFA World Cup [Group F].”

Original source

Japan finished second in Group F behind the Netherlands.

Primary evidence source

Impact on track record
FALSE

Brier Index

62.0 → 62.0 (+0.1)

Raw Brier

0.145 → 0.144

Overall rank

15 → 15

View updated profile →
Statement context

Specific group-stage prediction by Chris Sutton in BBC Sport article published 2026-06-10. Premier English outlet with detailed, falsifiable pre-tournament forecasts.

Resolution criteria

Japan finishes in first place in its assigned group at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, as determined by the official FIFA group standings.

Verification

This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.

Claim details
Published 10 June 2026
Logged 11 June 2026
Resolved 5 July 2026
Stated probability 35%
Brier contribution 0.122
Brier Index (this prediction) 65.0
Prediction id pred-2026-06-10-sutton-japan-group
Topic
Japan Performance Group Stage