“France wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup”
Spain won the 2026 FIFA World Cup, defeating Argentina 1-0 after extra time in the final. France finished fourth.
Brier Index
61.7 → 62.0 (+0.4)
Raw Brier
0.147 → 0.144
Overall rank
15 → 15
Captured from public source. Raw quote: Spain are an outstanding team but I've gone for France to win the past two World Cups and I wasn't far wrong. I am not going to change my mind now - they didn't really click at the last Euros but I lo
Sutton makes a clear, repeated directional claim (“I’ve gone for France… I am not going to change my mind now”). No numerical odds are given. Pre-tournament market implied probability for France was ~15–18%. 0.22 sits slightly above the market while remaining conservative for a qualitative pick that still acknowledges Spain as outstanding.
France is declared the official winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup by FIFA (final match result).
This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.
| Published | 3 August 2026 |
| Logged | 3 August 2026 |
| Resolved | — |
| Stated probability | 22% |
| Brier contribution | 0.048 |
| Brier Index (this prediction) | 78.0 |
| Prediction id | pred-2026-08-03-sutton-france-wins-the-2026-fifa-world |
| Topic |
Winner
|
| Archived source | View archive link |