Forecaster
TH

Tom Hamilton

Public forecaster · ESPN · As of 2026-08-31

Brier Index
81.0 /100

n = 2 resolved · Rank 4 · Raw Brier: 0.036

Latest resolution

“Paraguay does not advance from the group stage at the 2026 FIFA World Cup [surprising early exit].”

False

Brier Index

82.0 → 81.0 (-1.0)

Overall rank

3 → 4

Full evidence trail →

Topic overview

Group stage 80.0 (1)
Other 82.0 (1)

Grouped categories with Brier Index (0–100, higher is better) and resolved count. Sample sizes remain modest.

Resolved predictions

“Ecuador is the surprise package / makes a strong run at the 2026 FIFA World Cup”

False
Published: June 2026 FIFA World

Ordered by resolution date (most recent first), then publication date. No editorial ranking applied. Sample sizes remain modest; treat scores as provisional.

Score composition

Individual Brier contribution of every resolved prediction in the overall mean (as of 20260831T180355Z · brier-1.0.0). Lower is better. Overall score is the pure mean of these values.

Prediction Brier
pred-2026-08-04-hamilton-ecuador-is-the-surprise-package0.032
pred-2026-06-10-hamilton-paraguay-no-advance0.040

Scores are mean Brier scores (lower is better). Only resolved predictions are included. Sample sizes remain modest for many topics; treat rankings as provisional.