“Paraguay does not advance from the group stage at the 2026 FIFA World Cup [surprising early exit].”
Paraguay finished third in Group D but advanced to the knockout stage (round of 32) and therefore did advance from the group stage, per official FIFA results.
Brier Index
82.0 → 81.0 (-1.0)
Raw Brier
0.032 → 0.036
Overall rank
3 → 4
Highlighted as most surprising non-advancer by Tom Hamilton in ESPN article published 2026-06-10. High-visibility major English outlet; counter-expectation early exit for accountability.
Paraguay does not finish in the top two of its group and does not advance to the knockout stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.
| Published | 10 June 2026 |
| Logged | 11 June 2026 |
| Resolved | 5 July 2026 |
| Stated probability | 20% |
| Brier contribution | 0.040 |
| Brier Index (this prediction) | 80.0 |
| Prediction id | pred-2026-06-10-hamilton-paraguay-no-advance |
| Topic |
Paraguay Performance Group Stage
|