“Ecuador is the surprise package / makes a strong run at the 2026 FIFA World Cup”
Ecuador exited in the Round of 32 (lost 0-2 to Mexico) and did not reach the quarter-finals.
Brier Index
80.0 → 81.0 (+1.0)
Raw Brier
0.040 → 0.036
Overall rank
4 → 4
Public prediction by Hamilton, Tom published in ESPN. Clear, testable claim about the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
The claim is a clear directional statement. No numerical odds were given by the forecaster. A probability of 0.18 reflects moderate confidence consistent with similar qualitative predictions in the dataset.
Ecuador reaches at least the quarter-finals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup according to the official FIFA tournament bracket.
This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.
| Published | 10 June 2026 |
| Logged | 4 August 2026 |
| Resolved | — |
| Stated probability | 18% |
| Brier contribution | 0.032 |
| Brier Index (this prediction) | 82.0 |
| Prediction id | pred-2026-08-04-hamilton-ecuador-is-the-surprise-package |
| Archived source | View archive link |