Forecaster
RD

Rob Dawson

Public forecaster · ESPN · As of 2026-08-31

Brier Index
49.5 /100

n = 3 resolved · Rank 18 · Raw Brier: 0.255

Latest resolution

“Netherlands does not advance from the group stage at the 2026 FIFA World Cup [hosted in USA/Canada/Mexico; surprising early exit].”

False

Brier Index

39.5 → 49.5 (+10.0)

Overall rank

23 → 18

Full evidence trail →

Topic overview

Other 52.5 (2)
Group stage 82.0 (1)

Grouped categories with Brier Index (0–100, higher is better) and resolved count. Sample sizes remain modest.

Resolved predictions

“Norway makes a deep run at the 2026 FIFA World Cup”

True
Published: June 2026 FIFA World

“Thomas Tuchel leaves the England job before the end of summer 2026”

False
Published: June 2026 General

Ordered by resolution date (most recent first), then publication date. No editorial ranking applied. Sample sizes remain modest; treat scores as provisional.

Score composition

Individual Brier contribution of every resolved prediction in the overall mean (as of 20260831T180355Z · brier-1.0.0). Lower is better. Overall score is the pure mean of these values.

Prediction Brier
pred-2026-08-04-dawson-thomas-tuchel-leaves-the-england0.010
pred-2026-06-10-dawson-nl-no-advance0.032
pred-2026-08-04-dawson-norway-makes-a-deep-run-at-the-20.722

Scores are mean Brier scores (lower is better). Only resolved predictions are included. Sample sizes remain modest for many topics; treat rankings as provisional.