“Thomas Tuchel leaves the England job before the end of summer 2026”
As of 10 August 2026 Thomas Tuchel remains England manager (contract through Euro 2028; FA confirmed he stays after the semi-final).
Brier Index
38.6 → 49.5 (+10.9)
Raw Brier
0.377 → 0.255
Overall rank
23 → 18
Public prediction by ESPN writer Rob Dawson published in ESPN. Clear, testable claim about the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
The claim is a directional statement without an explicit numerical probability. 0.10 is a conservative human-elicited value.
Thomas Tuchel is no longer England manager by 31 August 2026 according to official FA or club announcements.
This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.
| Published | 10 June 2026 |
| Logged | 4 August 2026 |
| Resolved | — |
| Stated probability | 10% |
| Brier contribution | 0.010 |
| Brier Index (this prediction) | 90.0 |
| Prediction id | pred-2026-08-04-dawson-thomas-tuchel-leaves-the-england |
| Topic |
General
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| Archived source | View archive link |