“Netherlands does not advance from the group stage at the 2026 FIFA World Cup [hosted in USA/Canada/Mexico; surprising early exit].”
Netherlands finished first in Group F with 7 points and advanced to the knockout stage, per official FIFA results published 2026-06-26.
Brier Index
39.5 → 49.5 (+10.0)
Raw Brier
0.366 → 0.255
Overall rank
23 → 18
Highlighted as most surprising non-advancer by Rob Dawson (and multiple other ESPN experts) in article published 2026-06-10. High-visibility major English outlet; counter to prevailing expectations for Oranje.
Netherlands does not finish in the top two positions of its group and therefore does not advance to the knockout stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.
| Published | 10 June 2026 |
| Logged | 11 June 2026 |
| Resolved | 5 July 2026 |
| Stated probability | 18% |
| Brier contribution | 0.032 |
| Brier Index (this prediction) | 82.0 |
| Prediction id | pred-2026-06-10-dawson-nl-no-advance |
| Topic |
Netherlands Performance Group Stage
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