Forecaster
MS

Michael Statham

Public forecaster · Football Oranje · As of 2026-08-31

Brier Index
32.8 /100

n = 2 resolved · Rank 27 · Raw Brier: 0.451

Latest resolution

“Netherlands performs well in Group F but not expected to win tournament”

True

Brier Index

38.0 → 32.8 (-5.2)

Overall rank

25 → 27

Full evidence trail →

Topic overview

Knockout & winner 38.0 (1)
Group stage 28.0 (1)

Grouped categories with Brier Index (0–100, higher is better) and resolved count. Sample sizes remain modest.

Resolved predictions

“Netherlands aims for quarter-finals or better at 2026 World Cup”

False
Published: April 2026 · Resolved: July 2026 Quarter-finals

Ordered by resolution date (most recent first), then publication date. No editorial ranking applied. Sample sizes remain modest; treat scores as provisional.

Score composition

Individual Brier contribution of every resolved prediction in the overall mean (as of 20260831T180355Z · brier-1.0.0). Lower is better. Overall score is the pure mean of these values.

Prediction Brier
pred-2026-04-18-statham-nl-qf0.384
pred-2026-05-25-statham-nl-groupf-no-win0.518

Scores are mean Brier scores (lower is better). Only resolved predictions are included. Sample sizes remain modest for many topics; treat rankings as provisional.