Michael Statham
True

“Netherlands performs well in Group F but not expected to win tournament”

Original source

Netherlands did not win the 2026 FIFA World Cup (eliminated in the Round of 32).

Primary evidence source

Impact on track record
TRUE

Brier Index

38.0 → 32.8 (-5.2)

Raw Brier

0.384 → 0.451

Overall rank

25 → 27

View updated profile →
Statement context

Public prediction by Michael Statham (@EredivisieMike). Expects solid group stage performance but limited overall tournament success.

Resolution criteria

Netherlands does not win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, as determined by the official FIFA final result.

Verification

This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.

Claim details
Published 25 May 2026
Resolved 19 July 2026
Stated probability 28%
Brier contribution 0.518
Brier Index (this prediction) 28.0
Prediction id pred-2026-05-25-statham-nl-groupf-no-win
Topic
Netherlands Performance Group Stage