Michael Statham
False

“Netherlands aims for quarter-finals or better at 2026 World Cup”

Original source

Netherlands reached the Round of 32 but were eliminated by Morocco on penalties and did not reach the quarterfinals.

Primary evidence source

Impact on track record
FALSE

Brier Index

28.0 → 32.8 (+4.8)

Raw Brier

0.518 → 0.451

Overall rank

29 → 27

View updated profile →
Statement context

Public prediction by Michael Statham (@EredivisieMike) on Football Oranje. Expects Netherlands to reach at least the quarterfinals.

Resolution criteria

Netherlands reaches at least the quarterfinal stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Verification

This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.

Claim details
Published 18 April 2026
Resolved 5 July 2026
Stated probability 62%
Brier contribution 0.384
Brier Index (this prediction) 38.0
Prediction id pred-2026-04-18-statham-nl-qf
Topic
Netherlands Performance Quarterfinals