Forecaster profile

Mark Ogden

Public forecaster

76.3

Brier Index · 0–100 · higher is better · n = 2

Raw Brier: 0.056 (lower is better)

as of 20260801T070734Z · brier-1.0.0

Scores are mean Brier scores (lower is better). Only resolved predictions are included. Sample sizes remain modest for many topics; treat rankings as provisional.

Tracked 2

Resolved 2

Pending 0

Topic breakdown

Quarters 70.0 (1)

Group 85.0 (1)

Topics ordered by resolved count. Numbers are Brier Index (0–100, higher is better), same scale as the main score.

Score composition

Individual Brier contribution of every resolved prediction in the overall mean (as of 20260801T070734Z · brier-1.0.0). Lower is better.

Prediction ID	Brier
pred-2026-06-10-ogden-usmnt-group-exit	0.022
pred-2026-06-10-ogden-portugal-underdog	0.090

IDs that make up this score: pred-2026-06-10-ogden-usmnt-group-exit, pred-2026-06-10-ogden-portugal-underdog

Recent predictions

“United States exits in the group stage at the 2026 FIFA World Cup [as host nation under pressure].”

False

2026-06-10

“Portugal reaches at least the quarterfinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup [hosted in USA/Canada/Mexico as a strong underdog capable of beati…”

False

2026-06-10

Ordered by resolution date (most recent first), then publication date. Limit 8. No editorial ranking applied.