Forecaster

Mark Ogden

Public forecaster · ESPN · As of 2026-08-31

Brier Index

76.3 /100

n = 2 resolved · Rank 10 · Raw Brier: 0.056

Latest resolution

“United States exits in the group stage at the 2026 FIFA World Cup [as host nation under pressure].”

False

Brier Index

70.0 → 76.3 (+6.3)

Overall rank

13 → 10

Full evidence trail →

Topic overview

Group stage 85.0 (1)

Knockout & winner 70.0 (1)

Grouped categories with Brier Index (0–100, higher is better) and resolved count. Sample sizes remain modest.

Resolved predictions

“Portugal reaches at least the quarterfinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup [hosted in USA/Canada/Mexico as a strong underdog capable of beati…”

False

Published: June 2026 · Resolved: July 2026 Quarter-finals

Ordered by resolution date (most recent first), then publication date. No editorial ranking applied. Sample sizes remain modest; treat scores as provisional.

Score composition

Individual Brier contribution of every resolved prediction in the overall mean (as of 20260831T180355Z · brier-1.0.0). Lower is better. Overall score is the pure mean of these values.

Prediction	Brier
pred-2026-06-10-ogden-usmnt-group-exit	0.022
pred-2026-06-10-ogden-portugal-underdog	0.090

Scores are mean Brier scores (lower is better). Only resolved predictions are included. Sample sizes remain modest for many topics; treat rankings as provisional.