“Portugal reaches at least the quarterfinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup [hosted in USA/Canada/Mexico as a strong underdog capable of beating any team].”
Portugal reached the Round of 16 but were eliminated by Spain and did not reach the quarterfinals.
| Published | 10 June 2026 |
| Resolved | 5 July 2026 |
| Stated probability | 30% |
| Brier contribution | 0.090 |
| Brier Index | 70.0 |
| Status | False |
| Prediction id | pred-2026-06-10-ogden-portugal-underdog |
| Topic |
Portugal Performance Quarterfinals
|
Portugal reaches at least the quarterfinal stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, as determined by the official FIFA knockout bracket published after the round of 16.
This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria.
The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome.
Full methodological rules are published in the project’s
METHODOLOGY.md.
An independent audit trail is retained under
resolved_predictions/pred-2026-06-10-ogden-portugal-underdog.md.