“United States exits in the group stage at the 2026 FIFA World Cup [as host nation under pressure].”
The United States finished first in Group D and advanced to the Round of 16 (did not exit in the group stage).
Brier Index
70.0 → 76.3 (+6.3)
Raw Brier
0.090 → 0.056
Overall rank
13 → 10
Non-consensus prediction by Mark Ogden in ESPN article published 2026-06-10. High-visibility major English outlet; bold early-exit claim for hosts creates strong accountability contrast.
The United States does not advance from its group stage at the 2026 FIFA World Cup and exits the tournament.
This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.
| Published | 10 June 2026 |
| Logged | 11 June 2026 |
| Resolved | 5 July 2026 |
| Stated probability | 15% |
| Brier contribution | 0.022 |
| Brier Index (this prediction) | 85.0 |
| Prediction id | pred-2026-06-10-ogden-usmnt-group-exit |
| Topic |
United States Performance Group Stage
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