Forecaster
GM

Gab Marcotti

Public forecaster · ESPN · As of 2026-08-31

Brier Index
37.3 /100

n = 3 resolved · Rank 25 · Raw Brier: 0.393

Latest resolution

“Brazil will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup [hosted in USA/Canada/Mexico].”

False

Brier Index

23.8 → 37.3 (+13.5)

Overall rank

29 → 25

Full evidence trail →

Topic overview

Knockout & winner 57.5 (2)
Group stage 19.0 (1)

Grouped categories with Brier Index (0–100, higher is better) and resolved count. Sample sizes remain modest.

Resolved predictions

“Uruguay does not advance from the group stage at the 2026 FIFA World Cup [surprising early exit under Bielsa].”

True
Published: June 2026 · Resolved: July 2026 Group stage

“Ecuador will grind its way into the knockout phase of the 2026 FIFA World Cup [tough, hard-to-beat style].”

True
Published: June 2026 · Resolved: July 2026 Round of 16

Ordered by resolution date (most recent first), then publication date. No editorial ranking applied. Sample sizes remain modest; treat scores as provisional.

Score composition

Individual Brier contribution of every resolved prediction in the overall mean (as of 20260831T180355Z · brier-1.0.0). Lower is better. Overall score is the pure mean of these values.

Prediction Brier
pred-2026-06-10-marcotti-brazil-winner0.020
pred-2026-06-10-marcotti-ecuador-knockout0.504
pred-2026-06-10-marcotti-uruguay-no-advance0.656

Scores are mean Brier scores (lower is better). Only resolved predictions are included. Sample sizes remain modest for many topics; treat rankings as provisional.