Gab Marcotti
False

“Brazil will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup [hosted in USA/Canada/Mexico].”

Original source

Brazil did not win the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Spain were the champions.

Primary evidence source

Impact on track record
FALSE

Brier Index

23.8 → 37.3 (+13.5)

Raw Brier

0.580 → 0.393

Overall rank

29 → 25

View updated profile →
Statement context

Bold prediction by Gab Marcotti in ESPN article published 2026-06-10. High-visibility major English outlet with named expert contributors.

Resolution criteria

Brazil is declared the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup by the official FIFA final match result on or before 2026-07-19.

Verification

This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.

Claim details
Published 10 June 2026
Logged 11 June 2026
Resolved 19 July 2026
Stated probability 14%
Brier contribution 0.020
Brier Index (this prediction) 86.0
Prediction id pred-2026-06-10-marcotti-brazil-winner
Topic
Winner