“Uruguay does not advance from the group stage at the 2026 FIFA World Cup [surprising early exit under Bielsa].”
Uruguay finished third or fourth in its group and did not advance to the knockout stage.
Brier Index
48.8 → 37.3 (-11.5)
Raw Brier
0.262 → 0.393
Overall rank
19 → 25
Highlighted as most surprising non-advancer by Gab Marcotti in ESPN article published 2026-06-10. High-visibility major English outlet; tactical/managerial context adds nuance.
Uruguay does not finish in the top two of its group and does not advance to the knockout stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.
| Published | 10 June 2026 |
| Logged | 11 June 2026 |
| Resolved | 5 July 2026 |
| Stated probability | 19% |
| Brier contribution | 0.656 |
| Brier Index (this prediction) | 19.0 |
| Prediction id | pred-2026-06-10-marcotti-uruguay-no-advance |
| Topic |
Uruguay Performance Group Stage
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