Forecaster
CO

Connor O'Halloran

Public forecaster · ESPN · As of 2026-08-31

Brier Index
83.5 /100

n = 2 resolved · Rank 1 · Raw Brier: 0.027

Latest resolution

“Senegal makes a deep run at the 2026 FIFA World Cup [hosted in USA/Canada/Mexico, similar to Morocco in 2022].”

False

Brier Index

88.0 → 83.5 (-4.5)

Overall rank

1 → 1

Full evidence trail →

Topic overview

Knockout & winner 84.0 (2)

Grouped categories with Brier Index (0–100, higher is better) and resolved count. Sample sizes remain modest.

Resolved predictions

“Two African teams reach the semi-finals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup”

False
Published: June 2026 Semi-finals

Ordered by resolution date (most recent first), then publication date. No editorial ranking applied. Sample sizes remain modest; treat scores as provisional.

Score composition

Individual Brier contribution of every resolved prediction in the overall mean (as of 20260831T180355Z · brier-1.0.0). Lower is better. Overall score is the pure mean of these values.

Prediction Brier
pred-2026-08-04-ohalloran-two-african-teams-reach-the-semi0.014
pred-2026-06-10-ohalloran-senegal-deep0.040

Scores are mean Brier scores (lower is better). Only resolved predictions are included. Sample sizes remain modest for many topics; treat rankings as provisional.