“Two African teams reach the semi-finals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup”
Zero African teams reached the semi-finals (Morocco lost in the quarter-finals to France). Semi-finalists were Spain, France, England and Argentina.
Brier Index
80.0 → 83.5 (+3.5)
Raw Brier
0.040 → 0.027
Overall rank
4 → 1
Public prediction by ESPN writer Connor O'Halloran published in ESPN. Clear, testable claim about the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
The claim is a clear directional statement. No numerical odds were given by the forecaster. A probability of 0.12 reflects moderate confidence consistent with similar qualitative predictions in the dataset.
At least two teams from the African confederation reach the semi-finals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup according to the official FIFA tournament bracket.
This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.
| Published | 10 June 2026 |
| Logged | 4 August 2026 |
| Resolved | — |
| Stated probability | 12% |
| Brier contribution | 0.014 |
| Brier Index (this prediction) | 88.0 |
| Prediction id | pred-2026-08-04-ohalloran-two-african-teams-reach-the-semi |
| Topic |
Semifinals
|
| Archived source | View archive link |