“Senegal makes a deep run at the 2026 FIFA World Cup [hosted in USA/Canada/Mexico, similar to Morocco in 2022].”
Senegal advanced from the group stage to the Round of 32 but were eliminated there and did not reach the Round of 16.
Brier Index
88.0 → 83.5 (-4.5)
Raw Brier
0.014 → 0.027
Overall rank
1 → 1
Prediction by Connor O'Halloran in ESPN article published 2026-06-10. High-visibility major English outlet; explicit comparison to prior surprise run.
Senegal advances from the group stage to at least the round of 16 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, as determined by the official FIFA results.
This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.
| Published | 10 June 2026 |
| Logged | 11 June 2026 |
| Resolved | 5 July 2026 |
| Stated probability | 20% |
| Brier contribution | 0.040 |
| Brier Index (this prediction) | 80.0 |
| Prediction id | pred-2026-06-10-ohalloran-senegal-deep |
| Topic |
Senegal Performance Knockout Stages
|