Forecaster

Cesar Hernandez

Public forecaster · ESPN · As of 2026-08-31

Brier Index

54.5 /100

n = 2 resolved · Rank 17 · Raw Brier: 0.207

Latest resolution

“Japan reaches at least the quarterfinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup [hosted in USA/Canada/Mexico].”

False

Brier Index

42.0 → 54.5 (+12.5)

Overall rank

22 → 17

Full evidence trail →

Topic overview

Knockout & winner 57.0 (2)

Grouped categories with Brier Index (0–100, higher is better) and resolved count. Sample sizes remain modest.

Resolved predictions

“United States reaches the round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup [as host nation].”

True

Published: June 2026 · Resolved: July 2026 Round of 16

Ordered by resolution date (most recent first), then publication date. No editorial ranking applied. Sample sizes remain modest; treat scores as provisional.

Score composition

Individual Brier contribution of every resolved prediction in the overall mean (as of 20260831T180355Z · brier-1.0.0). Lower is better. Overall score is the pure mean of these values.

Prediction	Brier
pred-2026-06-10-hernandez-japan-qf	0.078
pred-2026-06-10-hernandez-usmnt-r16	0.336

Scores are mean Brier scores (lower is better). Only resolved predictions are included. Sample sizes remain modest for many topics; treat rankings as provisional.