“United States reaches the round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup [as host nation].”

Original source

United States reached the round of 16 as host nation, per official FIFA results.

Primary evidence source

Impact on track record
TRUE

Brier Index

72.0 → 54.5 (-17.5)

Raw Brier

0.078 → 0.207

Overall rank

14 → 17

Statement context

Prediction by Cesar Hernandez in ESPN article published 2026-06-10. High-visibility major English outlet with named expert contributors; host-nation accountability angle.

Resolution criteria

The United States reaches the round of 16 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, as determined by the official FIFA knockout bracket published after the group stage.

Verification

This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.

Claim details
Published 10 June 2026
Logged 11 June 2026
Resolved 5 July 2026
Stated probability 42%
Brier contribution 0.336
Brier Index (this prediction) 42.0
Prediction id pred-2026-06-10-hernandez-usmnt-r16
Topic
United States Performance Round of 16