“United States reaches the round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup [as host nation].”
United States reached the round of 16 as host nation, per official FIFA results.
Brier Index
72.0 → 54.5 (-17.5)
Raw Brier
0.078 → 0.207
Overall rank
14 → 17
Prediction by Cesar Hernandez in ESPN article published 2026-06-10. High-visibility major English outlet with named expert contributors; host-nation accountability angle.
The United States reaches the round of 16 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, as determined by the official FIFA knockout bracket published after the group stage.
This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.
| Published | 10 June 2026 |
| Logged | 11 June 2026 |
| Resolved | 5 July 2026 |
| Stated probability | 42% |
| Brier contribution | 0.336 |
| Brier Index (this prediction) | 42.0 |
| Prediction id | pred-2026-06-10-hernandez-usmnt-r16 |
| Topic |
United States Performance Round of 16
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