“Japan reaches at least the quarterfinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup [hosted in USA/Canada/Mexico].”
Japan reached the round of 16 but did not advance to the quarterfinals, per official FIFA knockout bracket published after the round of 16.
Brier Index
42.0 → 54.5 (+12.5)
Raw Brier
0.336 → 0.207
Overall rank
22 → 17
Prediction by Cesar Hernandez in ESPN article published 2026-06-10. High-visibility major English outlet; non-consensus deep run for Japan.
Japan reaches the quarterfinal stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, as determined by the official FIFA knockout bracket published after the round of 16.
This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.
| Published | 10 June 2026 |
| Logged | 11 June 2026 |
| Resolved | 5 July 2026 |
| Stated probability | 28% |
| Brier contribution | 0.078 |
| Brier Index (this prediction) | 72.0 |
| Prediction id | pred-2026-06-10-hernandez-japan-qf |
| Topic |
Japan Performance Quarterfinals
|