Forecaster profile
Bill Connelly
Public forecaster
Brier Index · 0–100 · higher is better · n = 2
Raw Brier: 0.042 (lower is better)
as of 20260801T070734Z · brier-1.0.0
Scores are mean Brier scores (lower is better). Only resolved predictions are included. Sample sizes remain modest for many topics; treat rankings as provisional.
Topic breakdown
Topics ordered by resolved count. Numbers are Brier Index (0–100, higher is better), same scale as the main score.
Score composition
Individual Brier contribution of every resolved prediction in the overall mean (as of 20260801T070734Z · brier-1.0.0). Lower is better.
| Prediction ID | Brier |
|---|---|
| pred-2026-06-10-connelly-england-winner | 0.036 |
| pred-2026-06-10-connelly-colombia-deep | 0.048 |
IDs that make up this score: pred-2026-06-10-connelly-england-winner, pred-2026-06-10-connelly-colombia-deep
Recent predictions
“England will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup [hosted in USA/Canada/Mexico, with Spain as runner-up].”
False“Colombia reaches the quarterfinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup [hosted in USA/Canada/Mexico as a strong underdog].”
FalseOrdered by resolution date (most recent first), then publication date. Limit 8. No editorial ranking applied.