Forecaster
BC

Bill Connelly

Public forecaster · ESPN · As of 2026-08-31

Brier Index
79.4 /100

n = 2 resolved · Rank 6 · Raw Brier: 0.042

Latest resolution

“England will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup [hosted in USA/Canada/Mexico, with Spain as runner-up].”

False

Brier Index

78.0 → 79.4 (+1.4)

Overall rank

8 → 6

Full evidence trail →

Topic overview

Knockout & winner 79.5 (2)

Grouped categories with Brier Index (0–100, higher is better) and resolved count. Sample sizes remain modest.

Resolved predictions

“Colombia reaches the quarterfinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup [hosted in USA/Canada/Mexico as a strong underdog].”

False
Published: June 2026 · Resolved: July 2026 Quarter-finals

Ordered by resolution date (most recent first), then publication date. No editorial ranking applied. Sample sizes remain modest; treat scores as provisional.

Score composition

Individual Brier contribution of every resolved prediction in the overall mean (as of 20260831T180355Z · brier-1.0.0). Lower is better. Overall score is the pure mean of these values.

Prediction Brier
pred-2026-06-10-connelly-england-winner0.036
pred-2026-06-10-connelly-colombia-deep0.048

Scores are mean Brier scores (lower is better). Only resolved predictions are included. Sample sizes remain modest for many topics; treat rankings as provisional.