“England will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup [hosted in USA/Canada/Mexico, with Spain as runner-up].”

Original source

England did not win the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Spain were the champions.

Primary evidence source

Impact on track record
FALSE

Brier Index

78.0 → 79.4 (+1.4)

Raw Brier

0.048 → 0.042

Overall rank

8 → 6

Statement context

Prediction by Bill Connelly in ESPN article published 2026-06-10. High-visibility major English outlet with named expert contributors; includes specific runner-up detail.

Resolution criteria

England is declared the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup by the official FIFA final match result on or before 2026-07-19.

Verification

This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.

Claim details
Published 10 June 2026
Logged 11 June 2026
Resolved 19 July 2026
Stated probability 19%
Brier contribution 0.036
Brier Index (this prediction) 81.0
Prediction id pred-2026-06-10-connelly-england-winner
Topic
Winner