All predictions
Bill Connelly
False

“England will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup [hosted in USA/Canada/Mexico, with Spain as runner-up].”

Original source

England did not win the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Spain were the champions.

Primary evidence source

Claim details
Published 10 June 2026
Resolved 19 July 2026
Stated probability 19%
Brier contribution 0.036
Brier Index 81.0
Status False
Prediction id pred-2026-06-10-connelly-england-winner
Topic
Winner
Resolution criteria

England is declared the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup by the official FIFA final match result on or before 2026-07-19.

Verification

This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md. An independent audit trail is retained under resolved_predictions/pred-2026-06-10-connelly-england-winner.md.