All predictions
Bill Connelly
False

“Colombia reaches the quarterfinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup [hosted in USA/Canada/Mexico as a strong underdog].”

Original source

Colombia reached the round of 16 but was eliminated by Switzerland on penalties (0-0, 3-4) on 2026-07-07 and did not appear in the official FIFA quarterfinal bracket.

Primary evidence source

Claim details
Published 10 June 2026
Resolved 5 July 2026
Stated probability 22%
Brier contribution 0.048
Brier Index 78.0
Status False
Prediction id pred-2026-06-10-connelly-colombia-deep
Topic
Colombia Performance Quarterfinals
Resolution criteria

Colombia reaches the quarterfinal stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, as determined by the official FIFA knockout bracket published after the round of 16.

Verification

This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md. An independent audit trail is retained under resolved_predictions/pred-2026-06-10-connelly-colombia-deep.md.