“Colombia reaches the quarterfinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup [hosted in USA/Canada/Mexico as a strong underdog].”
Colombia reached the round of 16 but was eliminated by Switzerland on penalties (0-0, 3-4) on 2026-07-07 and did not appear in the official FIFA quarterfinal bracket.
Brier Index
81.0 → 79.4 (-1.6)
Raw Brier
0.036 → 0.042
Overall rank
4 → 6
Prediction by Bill Connelly in ESPN article published 2026-06-10. High-visibility major English outlet; asymmetric underdog deep-run claim with accountability value.
Colombia reaches the quarterfinal stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, as determined by the official FIFA knockout bracket published after the round of 16.
This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.
| Published | 10 June 2026 |
| Logged | 11 June 2026 |
| Resolved | 5 July 2026 |
| Stated probability | 22% |
| Brier contribution | 0.048 |
| Brier Index (this prediction) | 78.0 |
| Prediction id | pred-2026-06-10-connelly-colombia-deep |
| Topic |
Colombia Performance Quarterfinals
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