Forecaster

Micah Richards

Public forecaster · BBC, Metro · As of 2026-08-31

Brier Index

42.1 /100

n = 2 resolved · Rank 22 · Raw Brier: 0.335

Latest resolution

“Spain will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup [hosted in USA/Canada/Mexico; Argentina will go close].”

True

Brier Index

75.0 → 42.1 (-32.9)

Overall rank

12 → 22

Full evidence trail →

Topic overview

Knockout & winner 42.1 (2)

Grouped categories with Brier Index (0–100, higher is better) and resolved count. Sample sizes remain modest.

Resolved predictions

“France wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup (Richards updated pick after group stage)”

False

Published: June 2026 Winner

Ordered by resolution date (most recent first), then publication date. No editorial ranking applied. Sample sizes remain modest; treat scores as provisional.

Score composition

Individual Brier contribution of every resolved prediction in the overall mean (as of 20260831T180355Z · brier-1.0.0). Lower is better. Overall score is the pure mean of these values.

Prediction	Brier
pred-2026-08-04-richards-france-wins-the-2026-fifa-world	0.062
pred-2026-06-10-richards-spain-winner	0.608

Scores are mean Brier scores (lower is better). Only resolved predictions are included. Sample sizes remain modest for many topics; treat rankings as provisional.