“Spain will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup [hosted in USA/Canada/Mexico; Argentina will go close].”

Original source

Spain won the 2026 FIFA World Cup, defeating Argentina in the final. Richards also correctly noted that Argentina would go close.

Primary evidence source

Impact on track record
TRUE

Brier Index

75.0 → 42.1 (-32.9)

Raw Brier

0.062 → 0.335

Overall rank

12 → 22

Statement context

Prediction by former England international and BBC Sport pundit Micah Richards in BBC Sport article 'Who will win the World Cup? BBC pundits make their predictions'. Published ~2026-06-10. High-visibility BBC platform.

Resolution criteria

Spain is declared the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup by the official FIFA final match result on or before 2026-07-19.

Verification

This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.

Claim details
Published 10 June 2026
Logged 11 June 2026
Resolved 19 July 2026
Stated probability 22%
Brier contribution 0.608
Brier Index (this prediction) 22.0
Prediction id pred-2026-06-10-richards-spain-winner
Topic
Winner