“Spain will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup [hosted in USA/Canada/Mexico; Argentina will go close].”
Spain won the 2026 FIFA World Cup, defeating Argentina in the final. Richards also correctly noted that Argentina would go close.
| Published | 10 June 2026 |
| Resolved | 19 July 2026 |
| Stated probability | 22% |
| Brier contribution | 0.608 |
| Brier Index | 22.0 |
| Status | True |
| Prediction id | pred-2026-06-10-richards-spain-winner |
| Topic |
Winner
|
Spain is declared the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup by the official FIFA final match result on or before 2026-07-19.
This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria.
The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome.
Full methodological rules are published in the project’s
METHODOLOGY.md.
An independent audit trail is retained under
resolved_predictions/pred-2026-06-10-richards-spain-winner.md.