Forecaster
LB

Lizzy Becherano

Public forecaster · ESPN · As of 2026-08-31

Brier Index
78.8 /100

n = 2 resolved · Rank 7 · Raw Brier: 0.045

Latest resolution

“Mexico reaches the quarterfinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup [as host nation].”

False

Brier Index

85.0 → 78.8 (-6.2)

Overall rank

1 → 7

Full evidence trail →

Topic overview

Knockout & winner 74.0 (1)
Other 85.0 (1)

Grouped categories with Brier Index (0–100, higher is better) and resolved count. Sample sizes remain modest.

Resolved predictions

“Japan makes a notable / deep run at the 2026 FIFA World Cup”

False
Published: June 2026 FIFA World

Ordered by resolution date (most recent first), then publication date. No editorial ranking applied. Sample sizes remain modest; treat scores as provisional.

Score composition

Individual Brier contribution of every resolved prediction in the overall mean (as of 20260831T180355Z · brier-1.0.0). Lower is better. Overall score is the pure mean of these values.

Prediction Brier
pred-2026-08-04-becherano-japan-makes-a-notable-deep-run-a0.022
pred-2026-06-10-becherano-mexico-qf0.068

Scores are mean Brier scores (lower is better). Only resolved predictions are included. Sample sizes remain modest for many topics; treat rankings as provisional.