“Mexico reaches the quarterfinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup [as host nation].”
Mexico reached the round of 16 but was eliminated by England (2-3) on 2026-07-05 and therefore did not appear in the official FIFA quarterfinal bracket.
Brier Index
85.0 → 78.8 (-6.2)
Raw Brier
0.022 → 0.045
Overall rank
1 → 7
Prediction by Lizzy Becherano in ESPN article published 2026-06-10. High-visibility major English outlet; host-nation deep-run claim with accountability value.
Mexico reaches the quarterfinal stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, as determined by the official FIFA knockout bracket published after the round of 16.
This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.
| Published | 10 June 2026 |
| Logged | 11 June 2026 |
| Resolved | 5 July 2026 |
| Stated probability | 26% |
| Brier contribution | 0.068 |
| Brier Index (this prediction) | 74.0 |
| Prediction id | pred-2026-06-10-becherano-mexico-qf |
| Topic |
Mexico Performance Quarterfinals
|