Forecaster
JO

James Olley

Public forecaster · ESPN · As of 2026-08-31

Brier Index
75.8 /100

n = 2 resolved · Rank 11 · Raw Brier: 0.058

Latest resolution

“Mexico benefits from altitude as host nation and reaches the quarterfinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.”

False

Brier Index

79.0 → 75.8 (-3.2)

Overall rank

7 → 11

Full evidence trail →

Topic overview

Knockout & winner 73.0 (1)
Group stage 79.0 (1)

Grouped categories with Brier Index (0–100, higher is better) and resolved count. Sample sizes remain modest.

Resolved predictions

“Australia is the most surprising team not to advance from the group stage at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.”

False
Published: June 2026 · Resolved: July 2026 Group stage

Ordered by resolution date (most recent first), then publication date. No editorial ranking applied. Sample sizes remain modest; treat scores as provisional.

Score composition

Individual Brier contribution of every resolved prediction in the overall mean (as of 20260831T180355Z · brier-1.0.0). Lower is better. Overall score is the pure mean of these values.

Prediction Brier
pred-2026-06-10-olley-australia-no-advance0.044
pred-2026-06-10-olley-mexico-altitude0.073

Scores are mean Brier scores (lower is better). Only resolved predictions are included. Sample sizes remain modest for many topics; treat rankings as provisional.