“Mexico benefits from altitude as host nation and reaches the quarterfinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.”
Mexico reached the Round of 16 but were eliminated by England and did not reach the quarterfinals.
Brier Index
79.0 → 75.8 (-3.2)
Raw Brier
0.044 → 0.058
Overall rank
7 → 11
Prediction by James Olley in ESPN article published 2026-06-10. High-visibility major English outlet; host-specific advantage claim.
Mexico reaches the quarterfinal stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, benefiting from home conditions including altitude, as determined by the official FIFA knockout bracket.
This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.
| Published | 10 June 2026 |
| Logged | 11 June 2026 |
| Resolved | 5 July 2026 |
| Stated probability | 27% |
| Brier contribution | 0.073 |
| Brier Index (this prediction) | 73.0 |
| Prediction id | pred-2026-06-10-olley-mexico-altitude |
| Topic |
Mexico Performance Quarterfinals
|