Forecaster
GB

Guillem Balague

Public forecaster · BBC · As of 2026-08-31

Brier Index
23.2 /100

n = 3 resolved · Rank 30 · Raw Brier: 0.590

Latest resolution

“Spain is the best team at the 2026 FIFA World Cup / reaches the final”

True

Brier Index

24.8 → 23.2 (-1.6)

Overall rank

30 → 30

Full evidence trail →

Topic overview

Knockout & winner 23.3 (3)

Grouped categories with Brier Index (0–100, higher is better) and resolved count. Sample sizes remain modest.

Resolved predictions

“Spain reaches the final of the 2026 FIFA World Cup”

True
Published: July 2026 Final

“The winner of Spain vs France (if they meet) wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup”

True
Published: July 2026 Winner

Ordered by resolution date (most recent first), then publication date. No editorial ranking applied. Sample sizes remain modest; treat scores as provisional.

Score composition

Individual Brier contribution of every resolved prediction in the overall mean (as of 20260831T180355Z · brier-1.0.0). Lower is better. Overall score is the pure mean of these values.

Prediction Brier
pred-2026-08-04-balague-the-winner-of-spain-vs-france-if0.490
pred-2026-08-04-balague-spain-is-the-best-team-at-the-200.640
pred-2026-08-04-balague-spain-reaches-the-final-of-the-20.640

Scores are mean Brier scores (lower is better). Only resolved predictions are included. Sample sizes remain modest for many topics; treat rankings as provisional.