“Spain reaches the final of the 2026 FIFA World Cup”
Spain reached the final (defeated France 2-0 in the semi-final) and subsequently won the tournament.
Brier Index
24.8 → 23.2 (-1.6)
Raw Brier
0.565 → 0.590
Overall rank
30 → 30
Public prediction by Spanish football journalist Guillem Balague published in BBC Sport. Clear, testable claim about the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
The claim is a clear directional statement. No numerical odds were given by the forecaster. A probability of 0.20 reflects moderate confidence consistent with similar qualitative predictions in the dataset.
Spain reaches the final of the 2026 FIFA World Cup according to the official FIFA tournament bracket.
This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.
| Published | 14 July 2026 |
| Logged | 4 August 2026 |
| Resolved | — |
| Stated probability | 20% |
| Brier contribution | 0.640 |
| Brier Index (this prediction) | 20.0 |
| Prediction id | pred-2026-08-04-balague-spain-reaches-the-final-of-the-2 |
| Topic |
Final
|
| Archived source | View archive link |