Forecaster
AK

Alex Kirkland

Public forecaster · ESPN · As of 2026-08-31

Brier Index
47.4 /100

n = 2 resolved · Rank 21 · Raw Brier: 0.276

Latest resolution

“Ecuador reaches the quarterfinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup [hosted in USA/Canada/Mexico].”

False

Brier Index

30.0 → 47.4 (+17.4)

Overall rank

28 → 21

Full evidence trail →

Topic overview

Knockout & winner 52.5 (2)

Grouped categories with Brier Index (0–100, higher is better) and resolved count. Sample sizes remain modest.

Resolved predictions

“Canada reaches the last 16 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup [as host nation].”

True
Published: June 2026 · Resolved: July 2026 Round of 16

Ordered by resolution date (most recent first), then publication date. No editorial ranking applied. Sample sizes remain modest; treat scores as provisional.

Score composition

Individual Brier contribution of every resolved prediction in the overall mean (as of 20260831T180355Z · brier-1.0.0). Lower is better. Overall score is the pure mean of these values.

Prediction Brier
pred-2026-06-10-kirkland-ecuador-qf0.062
pred-2026-06-10-kirkland-canada-last160.490

Scores are mean Brier scores (lower is better). Only resolved predictions are included. Sample sizes remain modest for many topics; treat rankings as provisional.