“Ecuador reaches the quarterfinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup [hosted in USA/Canada/Mexico].”
Ecuador reached the round of 16 but did not advance to the quarterfinals, per official FIFA knockout bracket.
Brier Index
30.0 → 47.4 (+17.4)
Raw Brier
0.490 → 0.276
Overall rank
28 → 21
Prediction by Alex Kirkland in ESPN article published 2026-06-10. High-visibility major English outlet; bold underdog claim.
Ecuador reaches the quarterfinal stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, as determined by the official FIFA knockout bracket published after the round of 16.
This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.
| Published | 10 June 2026 |
| Logged | 11 June 2026 |
| Resolved | 5 July 2026 |
| Stated probability | 25% |
| Brier contribution | 0.062 |
| Brier Index (this prediction) | 75.0 |
| Prediction id | pred-2026-06-10-kirkland-ecuador-qf |
| Topic |
Ecuador Performance Quarterfinals
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