“Ecuador is more than capable of getting out of its group and matching its 2006 run to the last 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup [tough, hard-to-beat style].”
Ecuador advanced from the group stage to the Round of 32 but were eliminated by Mexico (0-2) and did not reach the Round of 16.
Brier Index
21.6 → 30.7 (+9.1)
Raw Brier
0.614 → 0.480
Overall rank
30 → 28
Dark horse analysis by Joe Mewis in FourFourTwo / Yahoo Sports article published 2026-06-08. Reputable English source; explicit historical benchmark for accountability.
Ecuador advances from the group stage to at least the round of 16 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, matching or exceeding its 2006 performance.
This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.
| Published | 8 June 2026 |
| Logged | 11 June 2026 |
| Resolved | 5 July 2026 |
| Stated probability | 28% |
| Brier contribution | 0.078 |
| Brier Index (this prediction) | 72.0 |
| Prediction id | pred-2026-06-08-mewis-ecuador-2006 |
| Topic |
Ecuador Performance Last 16
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