“World Cup 2026 winner is one of: Portugal, Spain, France, Brazil”

Original source

Spain won the 2026 FIFA World Cup (beat Argentina in the final). Spain was one of the four teams listed in the prediction.

Primary evidence source

Impact on track record
TRUE

Brier Index

39.0 → 40.5 (+1.5)

Raw Brier

0.372 → 0.354

Overall rank

23 → 23

Statement context

Public prediction by former Netherlands international Wesley Sneijder published in Express.co.uk. Restricts possible winners to four teams.

Resolution criteria

The winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup is one of Portugal, Spain, France, or Brazil, as determined by the official FIFA final match result.

Verification

This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.

Claim details
Published 6 December 2025
Resolved 19 July 2026
Stated probability 42%
Brier contribution 0.336
Brier Index (this prediction) 42.0
Prediction id pred-2025-12-06-sneijder-winner-restricted
Topic
Winner