Forecaster

Thomas Frank

Public forecaster · BBC · As of 2026-08-31

Brier Index

38.3 /100

n = 2 resolved · Rank 24 · Raw Brier: 0.381

Latest resolution

“England will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup [hosted in USA/Canada/Mexico; main contenders include Brazil, Argentina, England and Portugal].”

False

Brier Index

15.0 → 38.3 (+23.3)

Overall rank

32 → 24

Full evidence trail →

Topic overview

Knockout & winner 80.0 (1)

Other 15.0 (1)

Grouped categories with Brier Index (0–100, higher is better) and resolved count. Sample sizes remain modest.

Resolved predictions

“Norway springs a surprise / makes a strong run at the 2026 FIFA World Cup (Frank pick)”

True

Published: June 2026 FIFA World

Ordered by resolution date (most recent first), then publication date. No editorial ranking applied. Sample sizes remain modest; treat scores as provisional.

Score composition

Individual Brier contribution of every resolved prediction in the overall mean (as of 20260831T180355Z · brier-1.0.0). Lower is better. Overall score is the pure mean of these values.

Prediction	Brier
pred-2026-06-10-frank-england-winner	0.040
pred-2026-08-04-frank-norway-springs-a-surprise-makes	0.722

Scores are mean Brier scores (lower is better). Only resolved predictions are included. Sample sizes remain modest for many topics; treat rankings as provisional.