Phil McNulty
Public forecaster · BBC · As of 2026-08-31
Latest resolution
“France wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup”
FalseBrier Index
72.0 → 73.5 (+1.5)
Overall rank
13 → 13
Topic overview
Grouped categories with Brier Index (0–100, higher is better) and resolved count. Sample sizes remain modest.
Resolved predictions
Ordered by resolution date (most recent first), then publication date. No editorial ranking applied. Sample sizes remain modest; treat scores as provisional.
Score composition
Individual Brier contribution of every resolved prediction in the overall mean (as of 20260831T180355Z · brier-1.0.0). Lower is better. Overall score is the pure mean of these values.
| Prediction | Brier |
|---|---|
| pred-2026-08-04-mcnulty-france-wins-the-2026-fifa-world | 0.062 |
| pred-2026-08-04-mcnulty-france-is-the-clear-favourite-to | 0.078 |
Scores are mean Brier scores (lower is better). Only resolved predictions are included. Sample sizes remain modest for many topics; treat rankings as provisional.