Julien Laurens
Public forecaster · ESPN · As of 2026-08-31
Latest resolution
“Japan makes a deep run at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, stronger than its performance in Qatar [hosted in USA/Canada/Mexico].”
FalseBrier Index
75.0 → 74.7 (-0.3)
Overall rank
12 → 12
Topic overview
Grouped categories with Brier Index (0–100, higher is better) and resolved count. Sample sizes remain modest.
Resolved predictions
“The 2026 FIFA World Cup final is contested by two European teams”
False“The 2026 FIFA World Cup final is contested by two European teams”
FalseOrdered by resolution date (most recent first), then publication date. No editorial ranking applied. Sample sizes remain modest; treat scores as provisional.
Score composition
Individual Brier contribution of every resolved prediction in the overall mean (as of 20260831T180355Z · brier-1.0.0). Lower is better. Overall score is the pure mean of these values.
| Prediction | Brier |
|---|---|
| pred-2026-08-04-laurens-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-final-is | 0.062 |
| pred-2026-08-04-laurens-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-final-is-2 | 0.062 |
| pred-2026-06-10-laurens-japan-deeper | 0.068 |
Scores are mean Brier scores (lower is better). Only resolved predictions are included. Sample sizes remain modest for many topics; treat rankings as provisional.