Forecaster

Carl Anka

Public forecaster · The New York Times · As of 2026-08-31

Brier Index

20.0 /100

n = 1 resolved · Rank 31 · Raw Brier: 0.640

Latest resolution

“Spain wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup”

True

Brier Index

— → 20.0 (—)

Overall rank

— → 31

Full evidence trail →

Topic overview

Knockout & winner 20.0 (1)

Grouped categories with Brier Index (0–100, higher is better) and resolved count. Sample sizes remain modest.

Resolved predictions

No predictions recorded.

Ordered by resolution date (most recent first), then publication date. No editorial ranking applied. Sample sizes remain modest; treat scores as provisional.

Score composition

Individual Brier contribution of every resolved prediction in the overall mean (as of 20260831T180355Z · brier-1.0.0). Lower is better. Overall score is the pure mean of these values.

Prediction	Brier
pred-2026-08-04-anka-spain-wins-the-2026-fifa-world-c	0.640

Scores are mean Brier scores (lower is better). Only resolved predictions are included. Sample sizes remain modest for many topics; treat rankings as provisional.