Forecaster
AB

Adam Burke

Public forecaster · The New York Times · As of 2026-08-31

Brier Index
78.0 /100

n = 1 resolved · Rank 8 · Raw Brier: 0.048

Latest resolution

“France wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup”

False

Brier Index

— → 78.0 (—)

Overall rank

— → 8

Full evidence trail →

Topic overview

Knockout & winner 78.0 (1)

Grouped categories with Brier Index (0–100, higher is better) and resolved count. Sample sizes remain modest.

Resolved predictions

No predictions recorded.

Ordered by resolution date (most recent first), then publication date. No editorial ranking applied. Sample sizes remain modest; treat scores as provisional.

Score composition

Individual Brier contribution of every resolved prediction in the overall mean (as of 20260831T180355Z · brier-1.0.0). Lower is better. Overall score is the pure mean of these values.

Prediction Brier
pred-2026-08-04-burke-france-wins-the-2026-fifa-world0.048

Scores are mean Brier scores (lower is better). Only resolved predictions are included. Sample sizes remain modest for many topics; treat rankings as provisional.