“The 2026 FIFA World Cup final is decided on penalties”
The final was decided in extra time (Ferran Torres 106'), not on penalties.
Brier Index
38.6 → 48.5 (+10.0)
Raw Brier
0.377 → 0.265
Overall rank
23 → 19
Public prediction by ESPN writer Beth Lindop published in ESPN. Clear, testable claim about the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
The claim is a clear directional statement. No numerical odds were given by the forecaster. A probability of 0.20 reflects moderate confidence consistent with similar qualitative predictions in the dataset.
The official FIFA final of the 2026 FIFA World Cup is decided by a penalty shoot-out.
This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.
| Published | 10 June 2026 |
| Logged | 4 August 2026 |
| Resolved | — |
| Stated probability | 20% |
| Brier contribution | 0.040 |
| Brier Index (this prediction) | 80.0 |
| Prediction id | pred-2026-08-04-lindop-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-final-is |
| Topic |
Final
|
| Archived source | View archive link |