Alan Shearer
False

“France will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup [hosted in USA/Canada/Mexico, provided there is no in-house fighting within the squad].”

Original source

France did not win the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Spain were the champions.

Primary evidence source

Impact on track record
FALSE

Brier Index

45.0 → 57.0 (+12.0)

Raw Brier

0.303 → 0.185

Overall rank

21 → 16

View updated profile →
Statement context

Prediction by former England captain and BBC Sport pundit Alan Shearer in BBC Sport article 'Who will win the World Cup? BBC pundits make their predictions'. Published ~2026-06-10. High-visibility BBC platform and named expert with explicit caveat.

Resolution criteria

France is declared the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup by the official FIFA final match result on or before 2026-07-19.

Verification

This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.

Claim details
Published 10 June 2026
Logged 11 June 2026
Resolved 19 July 2026
Stated probability 26%
Brier contribution 0.068
Brier Index (this prediction) 74.0
Prediction id pred-2026-06-10-shearer-france-winner
Topic
Winner