“England can make the semifinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup [hosted in USA/Canada/Mexico, with ability and manager not afraid to make big decisions].”
England reached the semifinals (lost 1–2 to Argentina) and later won the third-place match against France.
Brier Index
74.0 → 57.0 (-17.0)
Raw Brier
0.068 → 0.185
Overall rank
13 → 16
Prediction by former England captain and BBC Sport pundit Alan Shearer in BBC Sport article 'Who will win the World Cup? BBC pundits make their predictions'. Published ~2026-06-10. High-visibility BBC platform.
England appears in one of the two 2026 FIFA World Cup semifinal matches, as determined by the official FIFA knockout bracket published after the quarterfinals.
This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.
| Published | 10 June 2026 |
| Logged | 11 June 2026 |
| Resolved | 11 July 2026 |
| Stated probability | 45% |
| Brier contribution | 0.303 |
| Brier Index (this prediction) | 45.0 |
| Prediction id | pred-2026-06-10-shearer-england-sf |
| Topic |
England Performance Semifinals
|